I wonder if Greece might be a good compromise candidate. I’ll say Greece. Possibly Germany. Null points could well go the UK- sadly the performance was weak- I know Josh could do it better, but we still [...]]]> Just before the results started to be announced during Saturday’s Eurovision Song Contest, I made a couple of predictions:

I wonder if Greece might be a good compromise candidate. I’ll say Greece. Possibly Germany. Null points could well go the UK- sadly the performance was weak- I know Josh could do it better, but we still wouldn’t deserve it. I think France are possibles. Russia would be too if it wasn’t for all the bloc voting.

Although I got Greece wrong (they came 8th), I was almost right in going for Germany and was on the money with the United Kingdom coming last, which was depressing. Below is my view of what went wrong (all Facts are from the various excellent Wikipedia entries):

Song. The song was a weak example of a Rick Astley song from over 20 years ago. Although Eurovision has traditionally been behind the times, it has rarely been twenty years behind. What depressed me most about the song was the backing soundtrack which really was stock Stock Aitken and Waterman. Perhaps that’s all we should have expected, but I thought Mr Waterman might at least have been able to come up with a tune and updated the backing. The song basically had nothing to make it stand out, either in terms of stupid gimmicks or the way the song was put together. The 2009 and 2010 winners could both be characterised as quirky and interesting but by no means loony, fairly traditional but still contemporary: this year’s German winner was even number 1 across Europe. Maybe if Kylie Minogue had been singing one of Pete Waterman’s songs it would have made sense, but then even she has moved on since the days of Charlene and Scott: Can’t Get You Out Of My Head might have won, although even that is getting on a bit now; I Should Be So Lucky wouldn’t have been so lucky. Back to the trains, Pete!

Performance. Sadly Josh’s performance was not the best, which was a real shame. This has happened before with United Kingdom entries and I’m not sure if it’s just bad luck, nerves (the same as England’s penalty shoot-out syndrome), or the fact that one feels more acutely the weaknesses of something you are supporting. Perhaps someone with a good deal of stage experience is needed, especially as the stages are generally competitively huge recently.

Staging. There is also something about the way the United Kingdom stages its acts which is somehow lacking. So many of the good acts seem to have a real presence and fill the screen. The last three winners make the point. They seem to fall into one of two categories: the small intimate acts and the larger more ostentatious or flamboyant ones. Russia in 2008 with the mad skater on an impossibly small rink made a so-so song quite compelling; Norway in 2009 had a larger set with movement and interest; Germany in 2010 was in theory suicidal: a small singer with dark hair on a large dark stage wearing largely black with not much in the way of backing singers or dancers. But it worked because the camera focussed on her and she filled the screen and was suitably bubbly and attractive enough to make that a good thing, even though her performance was not actually as good as it could have been (I think she looked uncomfortable in high heels and, judging from her embarrassing half-way point interviews, quite nervous). One of the other lamer entries for 2010 (I forget which) also featured a male singer, but the staging was simple and the camera was mainly filled with him so you knew what was what. However, the United Kingdom entry was too flashy (with all the big squares and ladies with cloaks) for Josh to be the focus of it, yet not nearly interesting enough (compare with Turkey which had The Stig’s wife and the Ankara branch of Kwik Fit all flouting fire and health & safety regulations) to stand out from the rest. The cubes and cloaks seemed to be merely a sop to the idea that “we need to do this kind of thing” without thinking it through or really going for it. Ideally, we need something like Lordi where the song, artist, and an eye-catching show are bound together from the start and where all three elements suit and complement each other rather than being bolted together as an after-thought.

Geopolitics. In 2004-2008, Eastern European countries achieved 3 out of 5 first places and 4 out of 5 second places; 3 of the 7 top two places went to Ukraine, and 2 to Russia, the two most powerful and best-placed countries to benefit from bloc voting. Norway’s win in the 2009 Contest demonstrated that geopolitics and bloc voting could be overcome. It also showed that ill will towards the United Kingdom because of the Iraq War, language-dominance, or whatever, was no longer an excuse, as Jade Ewen came in 5th. However, the United Kingdom does have no natural allies to at least scrape them off the bottom: I can’t see Ukraine, Greece, or Cyprus ever getting less than 12 points. Portugal and Spain always throw each other something. Although this level of support is not necessarily going to guarantee victory- Cyprus has never won- it is certainly a good bedrock on which to build: in 2010 Russia still came 11th with 90 points despite a woeful song, with the help of 12’s from neighbours Moldova, Estonia, and Belarus, a 10 from neighbour Latvia, and an 8 from neighbour Poland. We haven’t got any decent marks from Malta in recent years and we seem to doggedly hang onto the idea that Ireland are our natural friends. Interestingly, Andrew Lloyd-Webber’s attempt, at least as televised, seemed to involve a great deal of pre-contest publicity, including a surreal interview with Vladimir Putin; this, and the pre-contest splash made by Germany’s entry this year, would suggest that some kind of international effort before the contest even starts is probably a good idea, replacing static alliances with dynamic diplomacy and publicity.

What next? I think the problems basically revolve around selection. I agree with Nick: we need electoral reform. On the one hand we need wisdom from someone who understands the necessary balance between song, performer, showmanship, publicity, and politics; on the other we need something that has a broad mandate as we can’t really give up the public selection now we’ve started. The problem is that, like the British electoral system, the current public selection show is way out of date. It was radical to be given a choice in the late 1980s but since then little has changed in the format, which is still normally one show or a couple of shows over a few weeks with many decisions, such as song or composer, completely taken out of the viewers’ hands. Compare this with what is really possible through the X-Factor and its various clones. These make real stars and sell real records. They create the buzz and publicity I referred to above. They also test the mettle of the stars we send, their genuine popularity, and their appeal on a big stage on a small screen; they also give the performer some practice doing exactly what they’ll doing in the Eurovision final. Something like that would be a better outlet for the BBC’s talent show department than advertising Andrew Lloyd-Webber’s latest restaging of some ancient classic musical. It would promote talent that appeals to the contemporary taste. It is also precisely what Germany did for the 2010 competition, and they won.

Anyway, my vote goes for Germany. My anti-vote goes to Israel: it was better performed than the semi-final but still makes me want to wince. I would also like to see Turkey and Greece do well, and Serbia.

I find this one [...]]]> A good year, although some good songs, especially the Dutch entry, didn’t make the final.

Anyway, my vote goes for Germany. My anti-vote goes to Israel: it was better performed than the semi-final but still makes me want to wince. I would also like to see Turkey and Greece do well, and Serbia.

I find this one a hard one to predict. I have a horrible feeling Ireland are going to well but I can’t really see them winning. I wonder if Greece might be a good compromise candidate. I’ll say Greece. Possibly Germany. Null points could well go the UK- sadly the performance was weak- I know Josh could do it better, but we still wouldn’t deserve it. I think France are possibles. Russia would be too if it wasn’t for all the bloc voting.

Orangeaurochs

The caption reads:

Marble figure of a recumbent bull

Probably made in [...]]]> I expect most readers of this blog are desperate to know what I really look like. The photo at the top of this blog doesn’t really give a good image so I put some better pictures on Flickr, the most representative of which is below:

Orangeaurochs

The caption reads:

Marble figure of a recumbent bull

Probably made in Athens about 400-350 BC. Perhaps from Kerameikos, Athens.

The bull may have served as a grave marker; it is likely that it was designed to be set on a high base and so seen only from below and from the front.

According to Wikipedia, Kerameikos is an area of Athens famous for its potters (the name is related to our word ceramic) as well being the site of a significant cemetery. Presumably the recumbent bull did some service there.

The Conservatives will scrape a majority.

This is based on the principles that both the Liberal Democrat and Labour support will ebb away just enough and that David Cameron’s [...]]]> Following my highly acclaimed* and wildly popular** predictions of Eurovision results, I offer my l33t sybilline skilz to the 2010 General Election tomorrow. All free of charge***:

The Conservatives will scrape a majority.

This is based on the principles that both the Liberal Democrat and Labour support will ebb away just enough and that David Cameron’s eyebrows have done a good job of looking serious while he says the word “values”**** a lot over the last week or so.

This is not to say that I hope it will happen. I hope the following happens, which is a little more complicated:

A hung Parliament with Labour the 2nd largest party: Labour form a government with the Liberal Democrats at least just long enough to enact proportional representation so that, whenever the coalition collapses (as it very shortly will, especially if Labour have to go through the rigmarole of appointing a new leader, which is likely as a condition of coalition in the first place) the Liberal Democrats have a serious shot at power in the next election or at least of heavily outflanking the Conservatives in a future coalition.

I think the Liberal Democrats would be foolish to enter a coalition with the Conservatives as they won’t get proportional representation with them, and they will then recede back into obscurity once the effect of the first TV debate fades and David Cameron’s eyebrows become yet more serious. Some of the implications of a Liberal/Conservative coalition are also quite dangerous. The Liberal Democrats, for instance, favour a referendum on membership of the European Union rather than, say, just membership of the Eurozone or closer integration. I don’t think membership of the EU is something that is even an issue anymore. Although they put a positive slant on it…

Liberal Democrats have argued for a referendum on whether Britain stays in or leaves the EU. We are the only party confident enough to put the pro-European case to the British people on the big issue facing us – and let the people decide. Britain will only win the case for a flexible, democratic Europe in Brussels if we settle our arguments at home on whether we should be part of the EU or not.

…I fear what could happen in straightened times and in concert with a Conservative government. I am not as confident as the Liberal Democrats.

Anyway, this is by the by. More importantly, William Hill are running a book. As I write, the predictions are:

• No overall winner: 4/7
• Conservative majority: 6/4
• Labour majority: 16/1

Interestingly, William Hill are also offering odds for the individual constituencies. For Bedfordshire North East the odds are:

• Conservative: 1/500
• Labour: 33/1
• Liberal Democrat: 33/1

Normally, you’d say you’d bet your house on the Conservatives winning this one, but for 1/500 it’s hardly worth the hassle. No prices for UKIP or the BNP I see.

* I did correctly predict the 2007 result.

** Perhaps not.

*** I.e. not for prophet.

**** Sounds a lot like the equally meaningless and equally riding-for-a-fall mantra “back to basics” that John Major had introduced following his affair with Edwina Currie.

Alistair Burt (Conservative), the sitting MP since 2001: Website: http://www.alistair-burt.co.uk/ Wikipedia:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alistair_Burt Lives: Wootton, Bedfordshire (in Mid Bedfordshire constituency) Qualified solicitor, and executive recruitment consultant (Presumably all former positions as currently lists no other paid jobs in his [...]]]> The five candidates so far for the North East constituency are the following. So far no Greens or independents that I know of:

Alistair Burt (Conservative), the sitting MP since 2001:
Website: http://www.alistair-burt.co.uk/
Wikipedia:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alistair_Burt
Lives: Wootton, Bedfordshire (in Mid Bedfordshire constituency)
Qualified solicitor, and executive recruitment consultant (Presumably all former positions as currently lists no other paid jobs in his declaration of interests on his website)
Photo (from Flickr user Nick Treby): http://www.flickr.com/photos/biggleswadeblue/4538025641/

Ed Brown (Labour)
Website: http://www.edbrown4nebedslabour.co.uk/
Lives: North London? (The biography on his website implies he lives in North London: “Ed is also active in local labour party [sic] activities in North London and is a school governor at Brecknock primary school in Camden.”)
Barrister
Photo (from Flickr user Nick Treby): http://www.flickr.com/photos/biggleswadeblue/4538039563/

Mike Pitt (Liberal Democrat)
Website: http://www.mike4nebeds.org/
Lives: Cambridge? (The biography on his website implies that he lives in Cambridge as he is a city councillor there: “He has experience as a Councillor in Cambridge, where he is portfolio holder with responsibility for Environmental and Waste Services on Cambridge City Council.”
Maths teacher
Photo (from Flickr user Nick Treby): http://www.flickr.com/photos/biggleswadeblue/4538017379/

Brian Capell (United Kingdom Independence Party)
Website: No website afaik but some information from a Bedford Today article.
Lives: Wymington, Bedfordshire (in North East Bedfordshire constituency)
Retired financial advisor and ex-headteacher
Photo (from Flickr user Nick Treby): http://www.flickr.com/photos/biggleswadeblue/4538032291/

Ian Seeby (British National Party)
Website: http://easternregioninformation.blogspot.com/2010/04/ian-seeby-ppc-north-east-bedfordshire.html
Lives: Broxbourne, Hertfordshire (“but does occasionally visit Biggleswade with a friend” lol)
Unemployed groundsman
Photo (from BNP Eastern Region website): http://easternregioninformation.blogspot.com/2010/04/ian-seeby-ppc-north-east-bedfordshire.html

Interestingly, only the UKIP candidate lives in the constituency. Even the sitting MP lives just outside it. I would have thought too that the BNP’s attitude to immigration would extend to local matters and that a truly local candidate could be found. At least he visits Biggleswade with a friend. The Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates seem a little shy about where they live on their websites. The Lib Dem person will at least have watched some of the same local news on the telly as I have, with his Cambridge links, which is more than can be said of the metropolitan Labour candidate.

General information on the North East Bedfordshire constituency is available from the following sites:

UK Polling Report: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/bedfordshirenortheast
BBC News: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/results/constituency/d15.stm
Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bedfordshire_North_East
YourNextMP: http://www.yournextmp.com/seats/north_east_bedfordshire

Some local campaign leaflets are available from TheStraightChoice.org. I should really contribute to this.

Gregg’s now famous line “Cooking doesn’t get tougher than this!” was originally uttered by Gregg in response to a joint of beef that John had cooked for lunch that day.

Gregg receives no payment for his role in Masterchef. He is, however, allowed to finish [...]]]> Masterchef HQ is actually John and Gregg’s house.

Gregg’s now famous line “Cooking doesn’t get tougher than this!” was originally uttered by Gregg in response to a joint of beef that John had cooked for lunch that day.

Gregg receives no payment for his role in Masterchef. He is, however, allowed to finish off all the puddings at the end of each episode.

Gregg does all the washing up after each episode. John lets him know if he’s missed anything.

John and Gregg are meticulous in being fair: each of them gets a vote to decide the fate of each contestant. If there is a tie, however, John gets the casting vote.

Gregg’s the bakers is owned by Gregg Wallace.

(Originally posted here)

It [ATOC: the Association of Train Operating Companies] says that work is scheduled for bank holiday weekends because fewer people use the network then.

Compare this with the unions’ plans for the forthcoming rail strike (April 2010) [...]]]> For some years now, railway engineering works has taken place during holidays. To quote a BBC report from August 2009:

It [ATOC: the Association of Train Operating Companies] says that work is scheduled for bank holiday weekends because fewer people use the network then.

Compare this with the unions’ plans for the forthcoming rail strike (April 2010) as reported in a BBC report of March 2010:

There were fears that the strike would be called over Easter, but the unions said they deliberately avoided this in order not to disrupt the public over the bank holiday.

I wonder who’s right? I suppose it all comes down to politics: there’s something strange about the timing and apparent suddenness of this strike anyway. Disruption during holidays will affect fewer people although you’ll spoil more people’s fun; disruption during the working week will affect more people (they’re still the public even if they’re going to work) although they might arguably be more grateful to have a good excuse to have a gratis day off work, if their employer thinks that is the way to go, and can still take their children to London Zoo in between Easter eggs over the bank holiday. I fear my employer, who is generally good in these situations, might say that I have to take any working days while the strike is on as annual leave or climb on the roof of the one train running in the morning. Maybe I should go on strike for more annual leave.